The Daily Upside recently pulled together a group of advisors and portfolio managers to share their read on the first half of 2026 and what they're positioning for heading into the second half. The responses ranged from geopolitical risk to Fed policy to AI bubble concerns. Justin Greenhill, co-founder and CIO of Sollinda Capital Management, took a different angle.
His answers were less focused on the headlines and more focused on a structural shift that tends to get overlooked when markets are performing well.
Most of the H2 commentary centered on familiar themes like sticky inflation, rate uncertainty, geopolitical disruption. JG’s responses kept coming back to something quieter: the change in equity supply dynamics.
For years, share buybacks reduced the pool of available shares in the market. That was a tailwind for equity prices. It's now reversing. Mega-cap companies are issuing equity and spending aggressively on AI capital expenditures, and free cash flow is starting to feel the pressure. JG's view is that clients holding passive, mega-cap-heavy portfolios may not fully appreciate how that shift changes the math.
"Rising equity supply and mounting pressure on mega-cap free cash flow, while AI capital expenditures continue to surge, are risks clients aren't paying enough attention to right now," he noted in his submission to the piece.
Here at Sollinda, we’ve been positioning to reduce concentration risk in that part of the market.
On the fixed income side, JG was direct about where Sollinda stands. We’re currently running short-duration. Long-duration bond yields are sitting just below multi-year highs, and a break above that level could create volatility across asset classes. At the same time, if rates start trending lower, long-duration bonds are likely underowned, which creates an opportunity in the other direction.
The positioning isn't a rate prediction. It's a response to asymmetric risk at a specific point on the yield curve, with a stated willingness to act quickly as the dynamic shifts.
Perhaps the most useful observation in JG’s responses had nothing to do with a specific asset class. When asked how client conversations have shifted since January, he pointed to FOMO driven by recency bias. Several strong years in equities have made passive concentration feel like a sound strategy. His concern is that clients are anchoring to recent performance rather than thinking about how their portfolios would actually behave if conditions changed.
"True diversification isn't just about what's in a portfolio, but also how a portfolio behaves when markets move," he said. Sollinda's approach is to build strategies matched to how clients actually respond under pressure, not just the risk tolerance number they selected on an intake form.
That framing is a useful counterpoint to some of the more reactive commentary elsewhere in the piece. Where others were describing how they're adjusting to current headlines, JG was describing a framework built to anticipate them.
Click here to take a look at the feature article “‘Hawkish Hold’ in Interest Rates, Iran Turmoil Prompt Advisors to Rethink Second Half of 2026”.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sollinda Capital Management is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. For more information please visit: https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and Sollinda Capital Management, LLC makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third party websites that Sollinda Capital Management, LLC may link to is not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy and Sollinda Capital Management, LLC assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Sollinda Capital Management, LLC. For more information about Sollinda Capital Management, LLC, including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.