Filmed on May 21st, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, we analyze:
- PPI rising on headline and core basis, with energy feeding through into other input costs
- Wages no longer outpacing inflation in aggregate, though the K-shaped economy complicates the picture
- AI CapEx from big tech contributed more to US GDP in 2025 than the entire US consumer
- DRAM chip demand continues to outpace supply, a key driver of Korean equity performance
- China's global export market share keeps growing despite tariffs, taking ground from Germany in particular
- US financial conditions remain loose despite inflation pickup
- S&P 500 earnings posted their best non-crisis recovery period in roughly two decades
- Semiconductor valuations historically elevated, with the bull case tied to a national security-driven AI buildout
- Market breadth has narrowed again, with a small number of companies driving most year-to-date gains
- Fed rate cut expectations have reversed, with market pricing now reflecting the possibility of hikes
- Long-end yields rising in the US, UK, and Japan, with bonds structurally underowned relative to stocks
- MOVE Index well above the VIX, an unusual divergence between bond and equity volatility
- Truflation showing significantly less inflationary pressure than official CPI
- Oil's year-to-date move is one of the sharpest on record going back to 1986
- Brazil election dynamics shifting after a banking scandal, but foreign capital inflows continuing on high real rates
- Gold pulling back to prior highs, a level that would now act as technical support if it holds
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This presentation has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.