Filmed on April 24th, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, we analyze:
- Most asset classes are roughly unchanged since the Iranian conflict began, with oil and Strait of Hormuz transit volumes as the clear outliers
- Volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies spiked sharply then collapsed, with demand for downside protection now back near pre-event levels
- Hours worked to buy a tank of gas shows why $80-$110 oil today is a very different story than $140-$150 oil going into the 2008 financial crisis
- Initial jobless claims remain stable, providing a continued floor for passive flows into equity and bond markets
- Tech forward P/E ratios have come down substantially, making the "tech is expensive" narrative increasingly outdated relative to current fundamentals
- Aggregate equity positioning sits near neutral, with retail speculative exposure well below prior peaks
- Emerging market carry trades have been the standout winners through the conflict period, with Brazil attracting foreign institutional capital while local investors remain underexposed to their own stock market
- Private lending has grown from 10% to 38% of all U.S. lending over the past decade, raising questions about systemic risk that traditional credit spread metrics can't fully capture
- The crude oil futures curve shows the market pricing the Iranian situation as a near-term disruption, not a structural shift
- The copper-to-gold ratio has started recovering after an extended period of underperformance, and they're watching it as a medium-term signal on global growth appetite
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This presentation has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.