Watch: Oil Shock & The Market That Won't Break

Filmed on March 13th, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, we analyze:

• Historical crisis events vs. S&P 500 returns: the data is a mixed bag, not a clear signal
• Oil and global stocks moving in opposite directions since the Iran conflict began
• Food costs tracking crude oil with a lag, possibly adding pressure on the consumer
• China dominating critical raw materials production, and why the US and Europe are establishing a price floor
• Mag Seven valuations completing a round trip back to 15-year averages as earnings hold
• Investors heavily hedged with put skew at elevated levels, limiting near-term downside
• Small cap outperformance rolling over as the conditions supporting it disappear
• Japan and Korea importing 85-90% of their energy, making them most exposed to oil spikes
• China's consumer continuing to weaken despite government stimulus, with demographics a key factor
• Fed rate cut expectations collapsing to one cut in 2026 as oil complicates the inflation picture
• European Central Bank potentially forced toward rate hikes, not cuts, as a result of their single mandate
• 10-year Treasury yields bouncing sharply off lows, pushing mortgage rates to 11-month highs
• Corporate credit spreads starting to move higher but still within long-term range
• Copper holding near all-time highs with a structurally different supply and demand story than oil

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This presentation has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.