Watch: Rate Hike Fears, Inflation Under the Surface & Brazil's Election

Filmed on September 12th, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill run through what the inflation data is showing under the surface, why long-end yields keep rising even as the Fed holds, and what a tightening Brazilian election could mean for global capital flows.

In this episode:

• Inflation rising but far less broad-based than the last rate hike cycle, with energy and computer products doing most of the work
  
  
• Core CPI still well below 2022 levels despite a monthly pop
  
  
• Nominal growth vs. the two-year yield showing the Fed would be hiking into already restrictive territory
  
  
• The S&P 500 at a critical horizontal line with CTA and vol control positioning pulling in opposite directions
  
  
• Breadth signals sending conflicting readings, one flashing caution, another pointing to a potential buy zone
  
  
• The bond market pricing a 90% chance of a rate hike next week while the Fed's dot plot has yet to move
  
  
• Long-end yields rising on term premium, not Fed action, as deficit concerns build
  
  
• Dollar bulls positioned for a rally that hasn't materialized, setting up a potential unwind
  
  
• Brazil's election tightening sharply, with Flávio Bolsonaro pulling ahead and markets unwinding hedges
  
  
• Gold caught between the long-term debasement trade and near-term rate hike risk
  

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